The ITF Transport Outlook examines the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050. It examines factors that can affect supply and demand for transport services and focuses on scenarios illustrating potential upper and lower pathways, discussing their relevance to policy making.
The 2015 edition presents an overview of long-run scenarios for the development of global passenger and freight transport volumes, with emphasis on changes in global trade flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation. It focuses on the characteristics of mobility development in developing countries, from Latin America to Chinese and Indian cities, highlighting the importance of urban mobility policies for the achievement of national and global sustainability goals.
Surface passenger transport
- Growth in global road and rail passenger travel to 2050 ranges from 120% to 230%, depending on future fuel prices and urban transport policies.
- CO2 emissions from global surface passenger transport will grow by between 30% and 110%.
- The growing population and economic concentration in urban areas call for particular attention to be paid to urban transport policies in emerging economies. By 2050, of the 2.7 billion additional urban dwellers, over 90% will live in developing countries.
- Public transport oriented urban policies would reduce CO2 emission growth by around 30% compared with the baseline scenario in Latin American and Chinese cities, and by almost 40% in Indian cities.
- Same policy strategies do not necessarily achieve similar reductions in CO2 emissions and in negative health impacts.
Road and rail freight
- Growth in world road and rail freight volumes to 2050 ranges from 230% to 420% depending on freight intensity of future GDP growth.
- The world growth of surface freight volumes and related CO2 emissions will be driven by non‑OECD economies.
- Trade related international freight is projected to grow by a factor of 4.3 by 2050.
- Over the period 2010‑2050, international trade related CO2 emissions will grow by a factor of 3 .9.
Trade related international freight
- Multilateral trade liberalisation will have an increasing impact on trade oriented towards the non‑OECD area, reflecting stronger underlying growth performance in this area and comparatively larger reductions in tariffs.
- Increasing international trade will set unprecedented challenges to the transport system, particularly around ports.
Title: ITF Transport Outlook 2015
Published by: International Transport Forum, OECD
Date: January 2015
Available from: OECD Library at <http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/itf-transport-outlook-2015_9789282107782-en>
Note from Urbanalyst: The above summary is sourced directly from the document and/or accompanying documentation. Aside from minor editorial modifications, the information is presented as-is.