Victoria

Victoria in Future 2014 released with updated population projections

VICTORIA will likely be home to 10 million people by 2051, including 7.8 million in the Greater Melbourne region and 2.2 million in regional areas, according to the latest population and household projections released by the State Government last month.

Updating 2012 projections, Victoria in Future 2014 is the government's official population and household projections to help manage growth and plan future infrastructure and services. Projections are based on the latest (30 June 2013) population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and incorporate the results of the 2011 Census.

The report shows that, judging by upwards trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration, the strong population growth Victoria has been experiencing in recent years will continue. Major highlights include:

  • Victoria's population is likely to reach 10 million people by 2051, up from 5.7 million in 2013;
  • Greater Melbourne is likely to reach 7.8 million people by 2051, up from 4.3 million in 2013;
  • Victoria's regions will likely grow to 2.2 million people, up from 1.4 million in 2013; and
  • More than half of the regional growth to 2051 will come from people moving from Melbourne.

The figures also show that population growth and change will not be evenly distributed across Victoria, with Greater Melbourne projected to have more than 80 per cent of the state's growth up to 2051.

Within Greater Melbourne, the areas with the greatest capacity for dwelling growth are expected to be the outer growth areas and the inner city. While the middle suburbs are expected to regenerate and increase steadily in population, the designated growth areas (52 per cent) and the five inner local government areas (15 per cent) are expected to account for two thirds of population growth to 2031.

The projections also reveal a change in household types between 2011 and 2051, with lone person households expected to rise from 25 per cent to 28 per cent and couples without children to increase from 26 per cent to 27 per cent. Families with children are expected to fall from 43 per cent to 40 per cent, while other household types are expected to decrease from 6 per cent to 5 per cent.

According to the figures, between 2011 and 2031, the fast growing metropolitan local government areas will be Melton (4.2 per cent per annum), Wyndham (4.0 per cent), Melbourne (4.0 per cent), Cardinia (3.9 per cent) and Whittlesea (3.5 per cent).

In regional Victoria, the fastest growing local government areas are expected to be Mitchell (4.8 per cent), Baw Baw (2.8 per cent), Bass Coast (2.4 per cent), Moorabool (2.3 per cent) and Surf Coast (2.1 per cent).

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